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These global-scale changes are not necessarily projected to occur in all tropical cyclone basins. For example, our 2015 study projects an increase in tropical storm frequency in the Northeast Pacific and near Hawaii, and a decrease in category 4-5 storm days over much of the southern hemisphere basins and parts of the northwest Pacific basin–both at variance with the global-scale projected changes. These differences in responses between basins seem to be linked to how much SSTs increase in a given region compared to the tropical mean increase in SST. Basins that warm more than the tropical average tend to show larger increases in tropical cyclone activity for a number of metrics.

Our 2015 study simulations also project little change in the median size of tropical cyclones globally; the model shows some skill at simulating the differences in average storm size between various basins in the present-day climate, lending some credibility to its future climate change projections of tropical cyclone size.

Figure 9 (click to enlarge)
Figure 10 (click to enlarge)
44(19) 122(18) 49(1-2) 96(12) 97(12) 28(23) 42(16)

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change “, an assessment by a World Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones is now available. This assessment was published in Nature Geoscience (March 2010). For more information on the expert team, see this WMO web page .

This report assesses published research on “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change” from the international scientific literature.

The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earth’s climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricanes will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation ( Figure 11 ) is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical sea surface temperatures.

The results shown in Figure 11 are based on a simulation study carried out by Thomas R. Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). In this study hurricanes were simulated for a climate warming as projected to occur with a substantial build-up of atmospheric CO2. An increase of intensity of about one-half category on the Saffir-Simpson scalewas simulated for an 80 year build-up of atmospheric CO2 at 1%/yr (compounded). For hurricane wind speeds, our model shows a sensitivity of about 4% per degree Celsius increase in tropical sea surface temperatures, with a larger percentage increase in near-storm rainfall.

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Connect for Health Colorado’s CEO, Kevin Patterson, testified in support of the exchange when the bill was heard by the Senate Finance Committee in early February. Patterson has noted that the cost of transitioning to HealthCare.gov — based on what other states have spent to do so — would be roughly $20-25 million. Colorado’s House has a Democratic majority, making S.B.3 relatively unlikely to be enacted, even if it passes the Senate.

Protesters rallied in Denver in January 2017, asking lawmakers to protect Connect for Health Colorado. Smallwood was quick to defend his bill, noting that people would still be able to obtain coverage , but from HealthCare.gov rather than Connect for Health Colorado. But in light of federal GOP lawmakers’ proposals to repeal and replace the health care law, ACA supporters in the state have also considering possible ways to keep the state-run exchange alive , as a back-up in case the federal government repeals the ACA (this was a distinct possibility in 2017, but is no longer likely in 2018, with midterm elections approaching). Among other options, they’ve considered the possibility of partnering with neighboring states to better serve people in the mountain time zone.

The Office of the Inspector General (OIG) has been conducting an audit into the exchange’s use of federal start-up funding in 2013 and 2014. In December 2016, the OIG recommended that $9.7 million in start-up funding be returned to HHS. Although news coverage of the audit report has been fairly negative, the money in question was only about 5 percent of the $184 million that Connect for Health Colorado received in start-up funding, and most of the issues are not what the average person would consider improper use of funds .

Their recommendation was based on the fact that their audit determined that a total of $9.7 million had either been used for costs that weren’t allowed to be funded with the start-up grant, had been improperly transferred from one grant to another, or had been improperly documented.

The exchange notes that the period being audited was in their early stages of operation, and that they have worked with auditors over the past few years to rectify problems that were found. They are continuing to work with HHS to determine whether any of the funds must be repaid; for now, it’s just an OIG recommendation, and the exchange has until January 26 to submit an official response to the audit.

On September 20, the Colorado Division of Insurance released the approved rates for 2017 plans . In the individual market, the Division of Insurance announced that premiums will increase by an average of 20.4 percent (on-exchange, the average is 20.9 percent, while off-exchange, it’s 19.9 percent), but in the small group market, the average increase will be just 2.1 percent.

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